by Central Washington University, Timothy Melbourne on 14 November 2018

Murray, J. R., B. W. Crowell, R. Grapenthin, K. Hodgkinson, J. O. Langbein, T. Melbourne, D. Melgar, and S. Minson (2019), by Central Washington University, Timothy Melbourne on 14 November 2018, and D. A. Schmidt Seismological Research Letters, 89, doi:10.1785/0220180162.

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert, is under development for the West Coast of the United States. This system currently uses the first few seconds of waveforms recorded by seismic instrumentation to rapidly characterize earthquake magnitude, location, and origin time; ShakeAlert recently added a seismic line source algorithm. For large to great earthquakes, magnitudes estimated from the earliest seismic data alone generally saturate. Real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data can directly measure large displacements, enabling accurate magnitude estimates for M w 7 events, possibly before rupture termination. GNSS-measured displacements also track evolving slip and, alone or in combination with seismic data, constrain finite-fault models. Particularly for large-magnitude, long-rupture events, GNSS-based magnitude and rupture extent estimates can improve updates to predicted shaking and thus alert accuracy. GNSS data processing centers at ShakeAlert partner institutions provide real-time streams to the EEW system, and three geodetic EEW algorithms have been developed through the ShakeAlert collaboration. These algorithms will undergo initial testing within ShakeAlert’s computational architecture using a suite of input data that includes simulated real-time displacements from synthetic earthquakes and GNSS recordings from recent earthquakes worldwide. Performance will be evaluated using metrics and standards consistent with those adopted for ShakeAlert overall. This initial assessment will guide method refinement and synthesis of the most successful features into a candidate geodetic algorithm for the ShakeAlert production system. In parallel, improvements to geodetic networks and streamlining approaches to data processing and exchange will ensure robust geodetic data availability in the event of an earthquake. Electronic Supplement: Table listing recent earthquakes for which high sample-rate (≥ 1 Hz) processed Global Positioning System data and seismic data have been gathered for use in testing geodetic earthquake early warning algorithms and a

summary of ground-motion metrics adopted by ShakeAlert,

the U.S. West Coast EEW system, for evaluating new or updated components before adoption in the production system,

and a schematic diagram of the real-time Global Navigation

Satellite Systems data flow for ShakeAlert.

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Research Program: 
Earth Surface & Interior Program (ESI)