Thermal and seismic precursors to the explosive eruption at La Soufrière...

Thompson, J., R. Contreras-Arratia, K. S. Befus, and Michael Ramsey (2022), Thermal and seismic precursors to the explosive eruption at La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent in April 2021, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 592, 117621, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117621.
Abstract: 

High temporal resolution, geostationary, thermal infrared data from the Advanced Baseline Imager combined with seismic data of La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent provide empirical insights into the volcanic processes and mechanisms that occurred from November 2020 until the explosive phase in April 2021. An overall increase in intensity of thermal output and seismicity are observed during the effusive phase; however, the intensity of the thermal data increased ∼20 days earlier than the seismicity. During the effusive phase, the daily radiant heat flux increased from 0.01 to >100 MW and the seismicity increased from 1 to 647 events. The climax of both records occurred during the explosive eruptions on April 9-14, 2021. Strong correlations are observed between these datasets in the weeks leading to the explosive eruptions. A significant (∼5 day) decrease in thermal and seismic activity is observed ∼12 days prior to the explosive phase, which could reveal a hiatus in magma migration prior to the eruption. Periods of decoupling between these datasets are also observed and are attributed to different mechanisms during the volcanic unrest. Occurrences with high seismicity and low heat flux may indicate deeper magmatic migration where no significant surface thermal response could be detected, for example. Recognizing correlations, or lack thereof, between high-temporal resolution thermal infrared and seismic data expands potential insights to subsurface volcanic processes by providing a second, complementary vantage. Such seismic-thermal analysis can improve our community’s capability to monitor and evaluate new volcanic eruptions. Indeed, extensive seismic networks (local and regional) and multiple geostationary weather satellites now provide near global coverage. A similar analysis to our work at La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent is feasible, and should become routine, at other volcanoes worldwide using combined high-temporal, ground and orbital data where available. The 2022 eruption at Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, Tonga, illustrates the important potential for these high cadence data and subsequent analysis even at extremely remote volcanoes.

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Research Program: 
Interdisciplinary Science Program (IDS)
Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAP)
Earth Surface & Interior Program (ESI)
Atmospheric Dynamics and Precipitation Program (ADP)
Mission: 
GOES-R
Funding Sources: 
80NSSC20K1336 and 80NSSC21K0840