Forecasting volcanic activity over the next decade: The plans for rapid-revisit...
The fundamental ability to forecast a new eruption using orbital data remains aspirational despite decades of spaceborne data acquisition, modeling, and analysis. In contrast, thermal change detection is routine and used to rapidly identify a new eruption already in progress. Sensors with lower spatial (≥ 1 km) and higher temporal (≤ 24 h) resolutions are best suited for this detection and provide near-real time information. However, our recent work examines both higher spatial, lower temporal resolution low-Earth orbit (LEO) as well as low spatial, higher temporal resolution geostationary orbit (GEO) data to identify precursory thermal eruption signals. Foundational to this is the ability to retrieve subtle (1-2 K) temperatures, which are easily overlooked using current change detection approaches. Decades of orbital TIR data enable a unique opportunity to quantify these low-level anomalies and small plumes over long periods. Most significant is the finding that the smaller, subtle detections served as precursory signals in ~81% of eruptions. Over the next decade, several high spatial (~ 60 m) resolution sensors are planned that provide daily (or better) TIR data at every volcano, vastly improving thermal baselines and detection of precursors. One of these, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) IR instrument, has planned volcano-specific data products crucial for accurate daily monitoring. However, the next step-change in orbital volcanology comes with a proposed hypertemporal mission to acquire sub-minute scale TIR data to determine mass and thermal flux rates of gas emissions, eruptive ash plumes, and lava flows from space for the first time.